Anna Ozola✓ identity verified

Baltic Timber & Forest Land

Latvia · Estonia · Lithuania

Forestry economist covering Baltic forest land, timber prices, and the regulation that moves both. I value parcels for a living and publish the forward view — with receipts — for buyers, owners, and funds.

  • · MSc Forestry Economics, LLU Jelgava
  • · Independent valuer, 900+ parcels appraised
  • · Advisor to two Baltic timber cooperatives

€49 /month

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verified since 28 Jan 2025

#1 of 7 in Baltic forests & land

⚠ conflicts disclosed (2)
  • — Owns 38 ha of forest land in Vidzeme
  • — Paid valuation work for parties active in markets she covers (disclosed per post)

The record

computed from 43 timestamped forecasts

68%

directional accuracy

0.210

mean brier score

38

resolved · 26 correct

5

open forecasts

Calibration — claimed vs happened

claimed happened
20–50%
55%n=11
50–60%
67%n=12
60–70%
78%n=9
80–90%
100%n=4

“Systematically underconfident — her 60% calls land near 75%. Trust her hedges; her blind spot is underpricing supply shocks.”

Biggest wins, biggest misses.

Both stay on the record forever. Honesty is the product.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Correct

Vidzeme forest land median price rises more than 8% in 2025

64%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.130

Published2025-01-21 · 09:14 UTC
Resolves by28 Feb 2026
SourceState Land Service transaction registry (VZD)

Closed at +11.3%. Standing-timber values and the LVM auction premium both pointed here a year early.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Correct

Latvian roundwood export prices exceed €95/m³ by September 2025

57%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.185

Published2025-03-05 · 11:41 UTC
Resolves by30 Sep 2025
SourceCSB Latvia foreign trade statistics

Hit €98.40 in August. I said 57% — in hindsight the Swedish pulp restocking made this closer to 75%.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Missed

EU deforestation regulation (EUDR) enforcement delayed beyond 2025

44%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.314

Published2024-10-09 · 10:58 UTC
Resolves by31 Dec 2025
SourceEU Official Journal

I leaned no at 44% — Brussels blinked again. Lesson logged: regulatory delays deserve a higher base rate.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Missed

Estonian spruce log prices spike more than 15% within six months

34%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.436

Published2025-06-17 · 08:29 UTC
Resolves by17 Dec 2025
SourceForeks Baltic timber price index

Underestimated the sanctions-rerouting effect — again. My calibration table says it plainly: I underprice supply shocks.

Open calls live now

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Vidzeme forest land prices rise 8–12% over the next 12 months

61%

stated probability

Published2026-05-26 · 08:54 UTC
Resolves by31 May 2027
SourceState Land Service transaction registry (VZD)

Transaction volume is up, Scandinavian buyers are back, and standing-timber values support the move. The risk is a rate-driven pause in institutional demand.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Latvia amends forest property subdivision rules before 2027

54%

stated probability

Published2026-04-30 · 10:22 UTC
Resolves by31 Dec 2026
SourceSaeima legislative registry

The ministry working group has a draft, but coalition bandwidth is the constraint. Coin-flip with a slight lean — the forestry lobby wants this one.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Baltic sawlog price index ends 2026 above its 2025 average

72%

stated probability

Published2026-03-12 · 09:08 UTC
Resolves by15 Jan 2027
SourceForeks Baltic timber price index

Construction demand in Sweden is recovering and Baltic harvest volumes are constrained by wet-winter access. Supply tells me the floor is in.

Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Subscribers

Latgale forest land transaction volume rises more than 20% YoY by Q2 2027

stated probability

2026-06-02 · 07:46 UTC

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Forecast · Baltic forests & land

Subscribers

A Scandinavian forestry fund enters the Latvian market before end-2026

stated probability

2026-05-18 · 13:37 UTC

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The full ledger

every public forecast · newest first

2026

2026-05-26Vidzeme forest land prices rise 8–12% over the next 12 months61%open
2026-04-30Latvia amends forest property subdivision rules before 202754%open
2026-03-12Baltic sawlog price index ends 2026 above its 2025 average72%open

2025

2025-11-21Latvian forest land median €/ha rises more than 5% in 202644%✓ right
2025-11-12LVM standing-timber auction premiums exceed 3% over reserve in Q3 202656%✓ right
2025-10-16Baltic birch plywood export volume grows more than 10% in 202652%✓ right
2025-09-05Estonian forest land transaction volume falls in 2026 as sellers hold34%✗ wrong
2025-08-22Pellet demand keeps Baltic energy-wood prices above €70/MWh through Q2 202566%✓ right
2025-08-21Lithuanian sawmill capacity utilisation exceeds 55% in Q1 202656%✗ wrong
2025-08-11Swedish imports of Baltic sawn timber rise more than 9% in 202544%✓ right
2025-08-06Wet-winter harvest disruption cuts Latvian Q1 supply more than 15% in 202682%✓ right
2025-07-22Kurzeme coastal parish land prices outpace the national average in 202652%✗ wrong
2025-07-11A new EU forestry subsidy window opens for Baltic owners before Q4 202531%✗ wrong
2025-06-17Estonian spruce log prices spike more than 15% within six months34%✗ wrong
2025-06-06Latvian forest land median €/ha rises more than 5% in 202564%✗ wrong
2025-05-27LVM standing-timber auction premiums exceed 7% over reserve in Q4 202537%✓ right
2025-04-13Lithuanian sawmill capacity utilisation exceeds 95% in Q3 202552%✓ right
2025-04-11Estonian forest land transaction volume falls in 2025 as sellers hold59%✓ right
2025-04-09Baltic birch plywood export volume grows more than 14% in 202567%✓ right
2025-04-01Wet-winter harvest disruption cuts Latvian Q1 supply more than 11% in 202578%✓ right
2025-03-25Pellet demand keeps Baltic energy-wood prices above €70/MWh through Q4 202544%✓ right
2025-03-20Kurzeme coastal parish land prices outpace the national average in 202563%✗ wrong
2025-03-05Latvian roundwood export prices exceed €95/m³ by September 202557%✓ right
2025-02-11A new EU forestry subsidy window opens for Baltic owners before Q4 202564%✓ right
2025-01-24Latvian forest land median €/ha rises more than 16% in 202567%✓ right
2025-01-21Vidzeme forest land median price rises more than 8% in 202564%✓ right

2024

2024-12-15Swedish imports of Baltic sawn timber rise more than 16% in 202575%✓ right
2024-11-25Estonian forest land transaction volume falls in 2025 as sellers hold80%✓ right
2024-10-22Lithuanian sawmill capacity utilisation exceeds 65% in Q1 202555%✓ right
2024-10-10LVM standing-timber auction premiums exceed 3% over reserve in Q4 202555%✗ wrong
2024-10-09EU deforestation regulation (EUDR) enforcement delayed beyond 202544%✗ wrong
2024-10-02Baltic birch plywood export volume grows more than 10% in 202557%✓ right
2024-09-22Wet-winter harvest disruption cuts Latvian Q1 supply more than 12% in 202580%✓ right
2024-08-26A new EU forestry subsidy window opens for Baltic owners before Q4 202480%✓ right
2024-08-11Kurzeme coastal parish land prices outpace the national average in 202559%✗ wrong
2024-08-09Swedish imports of Baltic sawn timber rise more than 12% in 202436%✗ wrong
2024-06-20LVM standing-timber auction premiums exceed 7% over reserve in Q3 202443%✓ right
2024-06-18Pellet demand keeps Baltic energy-wood prices above €90/MWh through Q1 202443%✗ wrong
2024-05-21Latvian forest land median €/ha rises more than 4% in 202466%✓ right
2024-04-10Baltic birch plywood export volume grows more than 17% in 202466%✓ right
2024-04-05Estonian forest land transaction volume falls in 2024 as sellers hold59%✓ right

Research & education — not personalized investment advice. Product preview: this expert and their record are illustrative sample data.