Oil Tanker Rates · Energy · Global
Two decades on tanker desks in London and Singapore. I forecast day rates, routing risk, and the crude flows underneath them. My subscribers are charterers, traders, and funds — my track record is the pitch.
75%
directional accuracy
61
resolved
5
open
0.185
brier
“Excellent overall, but treat his 90%+ calls as ~75% — the table shows the overconfidence and he owns it.”
Open calls · live
Probability
57%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
Baltic Exchange TD3C assessment
Fleet growth is near zero, OPEC+ barrels are coming back, and Atlantic-basin exports keep stretching tonne-miles. The bear case is a demand wobble in Asia.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0x6e74…e32fProbability
38%
Deadline
30 JUN 2027
Source
Lloyd’s List Intelligence transit counts
Insurers reprice slower than headlines. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war-risk premiums keep the Cape routing sticky well into 2027.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
anchored · 0x6d74…e4c2Probability
42%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
ICE Brent settlement
Below consensus on this one. Spare capacity is real and demand growth keeps disappointing — $90 needs a supply shock, not a trend.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x6c74…e655Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Baltic Exchange assessments
The fixture pattern behind this call — and the two charterers driving it.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x6b74…db50Members see the full call
Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Clarksons newbuild order book
Yard-slot maths and who blinks first. This reshapes 2028 supply either way.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x6a74…dce3Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
73%
Deadline
15 DEC 2025
Source
Baltic Exchange TD3C assessment
Printed $61k in November. Tonne-mile demand did the work — the fleet simply isn’t growing.
Brier 0.07 · logged 22 May 2025 · immutable
anchored · 0x6974…de76Probability
91%
Deadline
31 MAR 2026
Source
OPEC secretariat communiqué
My worst miss of the year. 91% and wrong — the quota unwind came two quarters early. My 90%+ bucket keeps telling me the same story: I should cap at 85%.
Brier 0.83 · logged 30 Sep 2025 · immutable
anchored · 0x7774…ee34Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.