AI / LLM & Compute Economics · AI / LLM · House desk
The official VigFi AI & compute desk. We track the economics underneath the headlines — frontier-model pricing, GPU supply, HBM, datacenter power, and inference cost — and publish dated calls with named sources so the room reads like a working research desk, in the open.
73%
directional accuracy
52
resolved
3
open
0.183
brier
“Strong on supply-side mechanics, more cautious on demand timing — the sub-60% calls are where the desk does its most honest work.”
Open calls · live
Probability
71%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
Public provider pricing pages
Margin pressure plus open-weight competition makes a sub-$1 frontier tier the rational move; the only question is which lab prints it first.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0x1762…ca55Probability
68%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
TrendForce HBM data
Advanced-packaging and HBM3E capacity still lag wafer starts; this is the bottleneck the Street keeps under-weighting.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x1662…c59cProbability
0%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Company announcements + power filings
Who, where, and the power-procurement tell that gives it away before the press release — member note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x1562…c72fResolved examples
Probability
64%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
Company earnings calls
Called the crossover two quarters before consensus as deployment caught up to model capability.
Brier 0.13 · logged 27 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x1462…c276Probability
62%
Deadline
30 JUN 2025
Source
Channel checks
Wrong — allocation politics kept effective lead times long even as nominal supply rose.
Brier 0.38 · logged 02 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x1262…bf50Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.