Crypto Market Structure · Crypto · House desk
The official VigFi crypto desk. We publish dated, source-checked calls on market structure — stablecoin supply, ETF flows, perp funding, and exchange liquidity — so anyone can watch a VigFi room work in the open. No tokens, no shilling, no price targets dressed as certainty.
70%
directional accuracy
46
resolved
3
open
0.191
brier
“Deliberately honest in a noisy domain — the desk leans on flows and structure over price, and prices the coin-flips as coin-flips.”
Open calls · live
Probability
64%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
DefiLlama stablecoin dashboard
Net issuance has been positive for nine straight weeks; the plumbing keeps expanding regardless of price, which is the cleaner structural read.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0x8365…3b7bProbability
56%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
Farside ETF flow trackers
Allocator demand is steady but lumpy — quarter-end rebalancing is the swing factor, so this sits just over a coin-flip.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0x8665…3d0eProbability
0%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
On-chain reserves + order-book depth
The reserve-attestation gaps and order-book tells we watch, and which venue concentration worries us most — member note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x8565…3ea1Resolved examples
Probability
67%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
DefiLlama stablecoin dashboard
Supply expanded ~24% as USDe scaled and USDC recovered — the structural-flow signal led price by months.
Brier 0.11 · logged 26 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x8865…4034Probability
57%
Deadline
30 JUN 2025
Source
Coinglass derivatives data
Wrong — vol compressed harder than expected as ETF flows dampened intraday ranges.
Brier 0.32 · logged 01 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x8a66…435aResearch and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.