Rates, FX, Inflation & Elections · Markets & macro · House desk
The official VigFi markets & macro desk. We publish dated probabilities on the things that move everything else — central-bank rate paths, FX, inflation prints, index levels, and elections — each tied to an official, checkable source. The room is open so the method is, too.
71%
directional accuracy
58
resolved
3
open
0.187
brier
“Tightly tied to official prints, so it resolves cleanly — well-calibrated on policy, a touch cautious on election timing.”
Open calls · live
Probability
58%
Deadline
17 SEP 2026
Source
ECB official monetary policy decisions
Disinflation is on track and growth is soft, but a sticky services print could stay the Governing Council’s hand — genuinely close to even.
Awaiting source · resolves by 17 Sep 2026
anchored · 0xdf66…c821Probability
61%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
US BLS CPI release
Shelter disinflation is finally feeding through; base effects do most of the remaining work into the autumn.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0xde66…c368Probability
0%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Official national election results
Which contest and the polling-vs-prediction-market gap we are leaning on — member note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0xdd66…c4fbResolved examples
Probability
69%
Deadline
31 DEC 2025
Source
Federal Reserve FOMC statements
Read the cooling labour data correctly; the first cut landed broadly on the schedule we modelled.
Brier 0.10 · logged 21 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xe466…ccdaProbability
56%
Deadline
30 JUN 2025
Source
ECB reference rates
Wrong — rate-differential and risk-off flows kept the euro capped below the level through the half.
Brier 0.31 · logged 23 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xe266…c9b4Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.