CBOT wheat trades above $7.00 at some point in 2026
57%stated probability
resolves 31 Dec 2026 · Source · CBOT settlementanchored · 0x8171…011b
VigFi · Field
Agriculture
Black Sea grain flows, harvest risk, and the basis trade.
1ranked voices
0companies
46resolved receipts
70%mean accuracy
VigFi Consensus
Black Sea wheat export pace exceeds 12M tonnes in Q3 2026
Corridor flows have normalised faster than the risk premium implies. Insurance and freight availability are the swing factors, with weather the wildcard.
57.5%
tight agreementreputation-weighted · simple mean 57.7%
54%61%
0%spread band · ±1σ100%
3 voices · resolves 30 Sep 2026·Source · Refinitiv shipping data·anchored · 0x8381…641ablock #4,144,585
Diego FuentesExpertAgriculture · Global62%
62.0weight
“Corridor flows normalised faster than the risk premium implies; insurance is the swing.”
Mark WhitfieldExpertEnergy & shipping · cross-fieldcross-field57%
74.6weight
“From the freight desk, Black Sea liftings and tonnage availability support the pace.”
Anna OzolaExpertForestry & land · cross-fieldcross-field54%
67.7weight
“Regional logistics read leans constructive, with weather the wildcard.”
Each voice is weighted by its VigFi Score. Cross-field voices are included where their record bears on the question. Illustrative consensus over sample receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
Field leaderboard
Agriculture, by the record
RankVoiceA · C · V · RRecordScore
Open calls on the record
Live, dated, and anchored.
Black Sea wheat export pace exceeds 12M tonnes in Q3 2026
62%stated probability
resolves 30 Sep 2026 · Source · Refinitiv shipping dataanchored · 0x8471…02ae
Illustrative sample data while the product is in preview. The VigFi Score and Consensus are computed from the receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
The whole record, one number per voice.
See Agriculture ranked against every other field on the Reputation Index, or read the live field feed — every post dated, sourced, and anchored.