US headline CPI prints below 2.5% YoY at some point before Q4 2026
61%stated probability
resolves 30 Sep 2026 · Source · US BLS CPI releaseanchored · 0xde66…c368
VigFi · Field
Markets & macro
Central-bank paths, FX, inflation, indices, and elections — the macro that moves everything else.
1ranked voices
0companies
58resolved receipts
71%mean accuracy
VigFi Consensus
The ECB cuts its deposit rate at least 25bp before the September 2026 meeting
Disinflation is on track and growth is soft, but a sticky services print could stay the Governing Council’s hand. Rate-sensitive desks across the platform weigh in on the call that moves everything else.
57.5%
tight agreementreputation-weighted · simple mean 57.5%
55%61%
0%spread band · ±1σ100%
4 voices · resolves 17 Sep 2026·Source · ECB official monetary policy decisions·anchored · 0x26dd…33c4block #4,177,249
Carlos FerrerExpertReal estate · cross-fieldcross-field62%
71.0weight
“Property demand is already pricing the cut; the registry data leans dovish.”
VigFi Markets & Macro DeskVigFi deskMarkets & macro · House desk
58%
65.2weight
“Disinflation on track, growth soft — but a sticky services print could stay their hand.”
Diego FuentesExpertAgriculture · cross-fieldcross-field56%
62.0weight
“Food inflation has cooled across our basket; the case for a cut is there.”
Mark WhitfieldExpertEnergy & shipping · cross-fieldcross-field54%
74.6weight
“Freight-led goods disinflation supports a cut, but energy base effects argue some caution.”
Each voice is weighted by its VigFi Score. Cross-field voices are included where their record bears on the question. Illustrative consensus over sample receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
Field leaderboard
Markets & macro, by the record
RankVoiceA · C · V · RRecordScore
Open calls on the record
Live, dated, and anchored.
The ECB cuts its deposit rate at least 25bp before the September 2026 meeting
58%stated probability
resolves 17 Sep 2026 · Source · ECB official monetary policy decisionsanchored · 0xdf66…c821
Illustrative sample data while the product is in preview. The VigFi Score and Consensus are computed from the receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
The whole record, one number per voice.
See Markets & macro ranked against every other field on the Reputation Index, or read the live field feed — every post dated, sourced, and anchored.