HBM remains the binding constraint on advanced-GPU output through 2026
68%stated probability
resolves 31 Dec 2026 · Source · TrendForce HBM dataanchored · 0x1662…c59c
VigFi · Field
AI & compute
GPU supply, model economics, HBM, and the next compute squeeze.
2ranked voices
1companies
104resolved receipts
69%mean accuracy
VigFi Consensus
A frontier lab ships a model under $1.00 / million output tokens before Q4 2026
Token economics are collapsing as open-weight competition and serving efficiency compound. The question is whether a frontier-class tier crosses the sub-$1 line this year — and which lab prints it first.
64.4%
moderate agreementreputation-weighted · simple mean 64.3%
59%70%
0%spread band · ±1σ100%
3 voices · resolves 30 Sep 2026·Source · Public provider pricing pages·anchored · 0xa261…2cf1block #4,116,382
VigFi AI & Compute DeskVigFi deskAI / LLM · House desk
71%
64.7weight
“Margin pressure plus open-weight competition makes a sub-$1 frontier tier the rational move.”
Ravi MenonExpertTechnology · Global64%
68.1weight
“Inference efficiency is loosening cost, but allocation politics and HBM still gate the floor.”
VigFi Crypto DeskVigFi deskDigital assets · cross-fieldcross-field
58%
63.1weight
“From the compute-demand side we watch, the serving-cost curve keeps bending down.”
Each voice is weighted by its VigFi Score. Cross-field voices are included where their record bears on the question. Illustrative consensus over sample receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
Field leaderboard
AI & compute, by the record
Open calls on the record
Live, dated, and anchored.
A frontier lab ships a model under $1.00 / million output tokens before October 2026
71%stated probability
resolves 30 Sep 2026 · Source · Public provider pricing pagesanchored · 0x1762…ca55
HBM remains the binding constraint on advanced-GPU output through 2026
71%stated probability
resolves 31 Dec 2026 · Source · TrendForce / earnings callsanchored · 0xbcb3…cb83
H100-class spot rental rates fall below $2.00/hr before Q4 2026
58%stated probability
resolves 30 Sep 2026 · Source · Cloud GPU price trackersanchored · 0xbbb3…cd16
Companies on the record
They publish, dated and sourced — not ranked.
Companies put structured data, reports, and reviews on the record in their field. They publish but do not forecast, so they carry no VigFi Score.
Illustrative sample data while the product is in preview. The VigFi Score and Consensus are computed from the receipts; the ledger anchor is a deterministic demo, not a live chain.
The whole record, one number per voice.
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